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False Positives Adventures in Technology, SciFi and Culture from Toronto

Saturday, January 01, 2005

Trends for 2005

OK, I think I botched my first attempt. Pithy, I'm not.

Competion for the last mile

Shot Term: Cable companies will rollout VoIP big time in the year next, but Local Telephone Companies will be much more low key about TVoIP. Because a) Voice data is such a small load, b) the Telco have delayed upgrading their last mile infrastructure for so long. Cable companies should be giving away VoIP to its High Speed customers or using it to attach new customers, either way the Telco loses: : "Get High Speed and throw away your Phone Company!"

Long Term: Cable companies and Telco companies are becoming non-monopoly communication carriers - competing on capacity, reliability, security and price - of internet services like text (web, email, sms ), audio (voice, music), video (TV, Pay TV, video on demand).

The rise of the Weblication

Blogs, Gmail, Flickr, ebay and Amazon powered by XML Http request, DHTML, XML, real world web services, and Home Broadband.

Trout Girl writes "Google is good for webdev" and highlights a major tend ahead : the rise of the Weblication.

A New must have box for the Home

HDTV and PRV will slowly become more wide spread and a new player is all this will be Microsoft! When MS launches it Xbox2 this year it has a chance to do something different and make in more than just a game platform but a media platform. Imagine a box which was also a HDTV PRV, or a Digital Music Jukebox, or one which enhanced your old (analog) TV to do some fancy trick using all that gaming processing. Sony is unlikely to do this because it what to sell you a separate PRV and a stereo, and a HDTV, etc., etc. But for MS it might allow they to sell the Xbox2 to people who wouldn't buy just a game box and also deny Sony some sale revenue.

64 bit and Multicore
These start to get in more hands and on the desktop. Could be a big factor in more market share for Linux and Macintosh.


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